Paul Offit likes to tell a story about how his wife, pediatrician Bonnie Offit, was about to give a child a vaccination when the kid was struck by a seizure. Had she given the injection a minute sooner, Paul Offit says, it would surely have appeared as though the vaccine had caused the seizure and…
One of the issues that bedevil us as both humans and traders is our ability to think clearly and rationally about subjects. We are prone to making snap judgments based upon the flimsiest of evidence. I get any and all manner of rubbish sent to me – some of it by people who should know…
This is from a boxing and conditioning coach Ross Enamait who I find to be a bit of the go to bloke for old school conditioning. It might not seem relevant but substitute the voice of a coach for the voice that occurs inside your own head and all of a sudden it becomes relevant…
As long ago as the fourth century B.C., scientists have argued in favor of simplicity. Perhaps the most familiar expression of the importance of simplicity for science is the 14th century formulation known as Occam’s razor, a line of reasoning that holds that the simplest answer is often correct. The preference for simplicity in science…
One question I’m often asked is what should a decision journal look like? You should care enormously whether you’re making good ones or bad ones. After all, in most knowledge organizations,your product is decisions. A good decision process matters more than analysis by a factor of six. A process or framework for making decisions, however,…
Michael Mauboussin: When does intuition work or fail? Daniel Kahneman: Intuition works less often than we think. There is no such thing as professional “expertise.” The Intuitions in chess masters develop with “big data” comes from experience. For people, the immediacy of feedback is especially important to learn the basis of expertise. When feedback comes…
It is only isolating if you are a dickhead – which is true of most things in life. It’s a rainy Wednesday morning and Clay Cockrell is sitting in his office at Columbus Circle across the street from 1 Central Park West, which houses Trump International Hotel and Tower. In front of the tower is…
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