One of things that always intrigued me about this time of year is the number of pronouncements that come out regarding predictions for the coming year. In my world if you are going to display a complete lack of credibility then all you need to do is to make predictions about what such and such…
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One of the difficulties of living in a world that is flooded with narratives is that they have an insidious way of seeping into your subconscious. This infiltration is unknown until you need to make a decision. The chart below is of QAN and upon cursory inspection it shows a relentless bearishness surrounding the stock…
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For your edification I bring you two articles. Firstly, a series of predictions made by Saxo Bank economists. Secondly, and more sensibly a piece that rightly asks – where are the economists yachts? Once you have read the first article you will automatically know the answer to the question posed in the second article.
So they took a look at the data on Darwin Award winners over the past 20 years, from 1995 to 2014. This is excellent data to work with. The winning event must be verified, winners must “show an astounding misapplication of common sense,” the winners must be both capable of making good decisions — and…
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These are my last words on this topic I promise. We have learnt that merely taking the average annualised return for an index and then back dating that figure to achieve a hypothetical magical figure is naive and reflects a tremendous lack of knowledge as to how markets work. Likewise suggesting that someone simply buy all…
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I was thinking of the results I was able to generate in part one and have come the conclusion that they flatter the basic premise of achieving the same return as the accumulation index. Remember, the basic premise was you simply bought the index and hung on – it is referred to in the piece…
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