Sometimes I feel sorry for traders/investors who need to construct a narrative as part of their investment process. Whilst you are cocooned inside your own delusional story you would never know whether your story is the right one and is the one the market has chosen. As an example consider the year to date moves…
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One of the intriguing quirks of financial history is that the Dow Jones Index has become the benchmark of the health of the US stockmarket and by extension a metric everyone else is fascinated in.It is interesting that the Dow has become this because of its strange mechanism of calculation and is somewhat anachronistic view…
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In line with the notion of January predicts the direction if the not the quanta of the year ahead here is a rundown of the January gains or losses for various markets. Make of it what you will….if anything….. What is more interesting to me is what I perceive to be a dislocation between perception…
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I recently posted this table of index price correlations. Its a fairly simple table that looks at the degree to which indices follow one another in their general pattern of movement. As you would expect indices that are closely related share a very high correlation. For example the Dow and the S&P500 share a price…
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For my own curiosity I decided to have a quick look at the price correlations of a handful of world indices. Those correlations that are below 0.5 I have coloured red. As expected most share a positive correlation with the only true diversification coming from the Shanghai Composite. This does pose a conundrum for index…
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I do enjoy it when people email me to ask me about something they have read in the media. My enjoyment comes from the simple fact that I dont read business publications. I find them irrelevant, stupid, depressing and generally lacking in original thought. However, in the spirit of being polite I did take a…
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With about a week to go before I deliver my prediction ( pulled out of my arse) on the direction of the market based upon January’s performance. Things are not looking too good with the Dow barely managing to hang onto its slim 0.19% gain
Apparently this is what a hard exit looks like. For the FTSE it seems to be a case of coming home and finding all your stuff on the front lawn….
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