Throughout the late 1960’s and early 1970’s Stanford psychologist Walter Mischel conducted what became known as the marshmallow tests. This test looked at the phenomena of delayed gratification in children. as part of the testing protocol children were offered either a small reward immediately or a larger reward if they waited 15 minutes. Interestingly…
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In 1999, in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, my then graduate student Justin Kruger and I published a paper that documented how, in many areas of life, incompetent people do not recognize—scratch that, cannot recognize—just how incompetent they are, a phenomenon that has come to be known as the Dunning-Kruger effect. Logic itself almost demands…
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One of the great failings of fundamental analysis is its reliance upon the narrative as its means of communication. Brokers will often ask analysts – whats the story? Meaning how can I sell this to the client. We are hardwired for narrative rather than data and this causes us enormnous problems in everything from dealing…
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Nothing in life is to be feared, only understood – Marie Curie It is no secret the Marie Curie is one of my intellectual idols – the only person to win two Nobel Prizes in different disciplines. I don’t count the Peace prize won by the likes of Linus Pauling since it is a bullshit popularity…
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What would be your perfect day? How would you look, feel, and what would you be doing? Strangely, when I’ve asked this to civilians (people outside our close-knit trading community), they don’t even know the answer. But I’ll bet you, if you think about it, you’ll know what you perfect day looks like. You know…
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I was talking to my friend, Alan Furlong, on the phone the other day. He’s a loyal follower of the positive psychology movement. I asked him “Alan – what should someone do if they really don’t like their job?” Without hesitation, he said “Quit”. I have to admit, his answer freaked me out. But the…
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An interesting interview with Marc Adreessen the inventor of Netscape and venture capitalist. He makes the following poiint – What did you do? I just went to college. I did my thing. I came out here in ’94, and Silicon Valley was in hibernation. In high school, I actually thought I was going to have…
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Your feelings don’t just LAND on you. You generate them. And if you generate sad feelings, you can also generate energising, happy and exuberant emotions. Take responsibility for the way you’re feeling right now. If you are ‘losing hope’ it means that you haven’t chosen to generate hope in your life. It means that you…
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The planning fallacy is related to optimism bias (think Lake Wobegon—where all the children are above average) and self-serving bias (where the good stuff is deemed to be my doing while the bad stuff is always someone else’s fault). We routinely overrate our own capacities and exaggerate our abilities to shape the future. Thus the…
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