Humans by and large are appalling natural statisticians, we continually misunderstand the risk of certain events occurring. I have friends who wont swim at the beach because they are frightened of sharks by will drive for two hours to get to the beach and then sit on the sand.
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This is an interesting episode from the ABC’s Health Report. Long story made short – the way you think doesn’t give you cancer and the way you think about your cancer once you have it doesn’t determine or influence your survival. Somewhat puts a hole in all those dickheads who post in social media, although…
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I came across this study the other day – Which Investment Behaviors Really Matter for Individual Investors? by a group at Goethe University in Frankfurt. The aim of the study was to examine various investor behaviours and see if these behaviours had any impact if any upon investor returns. As the study points out there…
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No financial condition is permanent unless you give it permission. Just what have you given permission to in your life that has taken hold? Might be time to re-assess… I’ve been through a few wipe-outs in my life. I was wiped out emotionally when I didn’t get into the University course I craved. I had…
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The Long Now Foundation’s monthly Seminars About Long-term Thinking were started in 2003 to build a compelling body of ideas about long-term thinking; to help nudge civilization toward our goal of making long-term thinking automatic and common instead of difficult and rare. Click player image.
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The long knives have been out for TED Talks for some time. Benjamin Bratton called them “middlebrow megachurch infotainment.”Evegny Morozov called the TED publishing arm the “insatiable kingpin of international meme laundering.” The gist of these arguments is that TED Talks are vapid, culty mass-selfies that fetishize technology for every solution. It is “placebo science” meant to…
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If to enjoy even an enjoyable present we must have the assurance of a happy future, we are “crying for the moon.” We have no such assurance. The best predictions are still matters of probability rather than certainty, and to the best of our knowledge every one of us is going to suffer and die.…
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I was going through my article archive and came across this old study that I hadn’t read in a long time which is a pity since it neatly encapsulates almost everything most traders do wrong. I have highlighted the bits that I think are important. He is both an aggressive investor and an active gambler.…
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This is a curious little malady that makes you believe that you are much better at a task than you actually are but you lack the either cognitive power or self perception to realise how bad you are. Consider of the HRF Hedge Fund Index versus the S&P500. As you can see a simple index…
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