Following my piece on fear I got a few comments from people that indicate that many confuse a lack of discipline with fear. To me fear is a visceral experience, it is almost tangible in the way it can paralyse ones actions and distort thinking. A lack of discipline is a behavioural trait and is…
DetailsWith some folks now proclaiming that Google trends can predict markets…..after they have moved which does defeat the purpose of a prediction system I thought it worth revisiting something I wrote awhile ago about the idiocy of predictive systems. PS: Mary-Anne and Ginger included only for reminiscing. I have a new trading system and judging…
DetailsThere has been a story doing the rounds in the past week about researches demonstrating the efficacy of tracking key word searches to predict market direction. One news report proudly trumpeted that it was more effective than a stockbroker in making you rich, you can insert your own snarky remark about this. The use of…
DetailsI have been rereading parts of Dan Ariely’s The Upside of Irrationality. For those who don’t know of Ariely and his work you can catch up with him on TED. One of the great cognitive biases we face as traders is the notion of herding – that is we run in groups. Institution’s are particularly…
DetailsI was in the process of writing a piece on this very subject.As luck would have it someone has done a much better job.
From the NYT – It’s not every day that someone stumbles upon a major new strategic thinker during family movie night. But that’s what happened to Michael Chwe, an associate professor of political science at the University of California, Los Angeles, when he sat down with his children some eight years ago to watch “Clueless,” the…
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For traders there is something uniquely compelling about about a range bound market such as the AUD/USD. For the amateur they are akin to a sirens call telling that there are endless profits to be gained simply by buying and selling inside the range. For the professional they are clearly marked no go zones. From…
DetailsI have written extensively about Apple in the past in the context of people falling in love with a stock and being blind to any possibility that their decision making could be flawed. This sort of situation which is also being repeated to a lesser degree with gold highlights the myriad of cognitive biases that…
DetailsThe above title is not mine – I pinched it from a blog called Behavioural Macro that someone emailed me a link to. I used it because it is instructive of a number of failings that traders have. The blog this headline comes from is a contradiction – supposedly a blog with a leaning toward behavioural…
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