Daniel Kahneman
Having started rereading parts of Thinking Fast and Slow I thought it was worth revisiting this
Why Too Much Data Disables Your Decision Making
Quick, think back to a major decision. You know, the kind that compelled you to read everything on a topic and lead you to spend hours devouring every last scrap of data. How’d that work out for you? We like to think that more information drives smarter decisions; that the more details we absorb, the…
DetailsTwo Surprisingly Related Items
Below is a table I lifted from Bespoke Investment It shows the YTD performance of what could be called analyst’s least loved stocks. You will note that some performed quite poorly but the top five had an average return of about 71% with WHR returning 104.34% The second of my related items is titled simply…
DetailsHow To Win At Forecasting
I have done prediction to death (see here) The patron saint of pointing out that experts don’t have clue is Philip Tetlock. This is an extended piece and video with him. It takes a bit to get through but the central message is that models beat experts as evidenced in the recent US election. The…
DetailsTen Minutes With Tate – The Narrative Fallacy
Some additional references – Yachtman Bets BlackBerry Can Survive Market-Share Plunge RIMS Market Share Slips Some More The New Blackberry Debacle Worldwide Market Share For Smartphones
DetailsSo You Think You Can Value A Company Do You?
I must admit having fun with value investors is a somewhat akin to shooting fish in a barrel The hubris required to believe that you and you alone actually know what something is worth and that the market will believe you is extraordinary. Consider the case of HP’s acquisition of software maker Autonomy, they thought…
DetailsS&P500
I like everyone else has been ear bashed by the notion of the fiscal cliff – that is yet another seemingly childish staring contest by people who are supposedly adults. We have seen several of these this year particularly in Europe where the Greeks and the Germans tried to out dickhead each other before actually…
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