Markets are good at telling you what the real story is. Watching price is not like listening to someone tell a story since people place their own filters on the information they receive and then filter it again for public consumption. People tell themselves what they want to hear and what they think will be…
By mistake I caught an item on the news about the ongoing battle of immunisation which to me seems to be a war being fought by people with a deep understanding of risk and the immunological basis of vaccination and idiots. This graphic sums up the later group. Source – This is Indexed This…
One of the most maligned ideas in economics is the efficient market hypothesis, perhaps because what is actually a rather technical statement about financial market returns is conflated with some entirely different claim about the superiority of free markets over government dirigisme. The EMH has various forms, but in brief its message is very simple:…
There are a lot of similarity between golf and trading. Both are fundamentally mental activities and the person who makes the fewest catastrophic errors wins. Golfers are also prone to the same sort of magical thinking that afflicts traders – if I use so and so’s clubs then my game will get better. Which is…
If there were more corporate collapses, the economy would be a healthier place Given the collapse of Comet last week, here’s a contrarian claim: far too many companies are staying solvent, avoiding bankruptcy and continuing to trade despite the troubled economy. If only we had a few more corporate collapses, the economy would be a…
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