The Illusion Of Asymmetric Insight

Trading Psychology

In 1954, in eastern Oklahoma, two tribes of children nearly killed each other. The neighboring tribes were unaware of each other’s existence. Separately, they lived among nature, played games, constructed shelters, prepared food – they knew peace. Each culture developed its own norms and rules of conduct. Each culture arrived at novel solutions to survival-critical…

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Outliers

Trading Psychology

It is now nearly two years since events conspired in such a way as to send bushfires of unparalleled size and ferocity across Victoria. The time between then and now has been spent dissecting why the fires were so bad, our response so inadequate and how to avoid such an occurrence in the future. To…

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Decision Fatigue

Trading Psychology

You may want to pay attention to the physical timing of your decisions to enter new trades. Decision fatigue helps explain why ordinarily sensible people get angry at colleagues and families, splurge on clothes, buy junk food at the supermarket and can’t resist the dealer’s offer to rustproof their new car. No matter how rational…

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Decision Fatigue

Trading Psychology

You may want to pay attention to the physical timing of your decisions to enter new trades. Decision fatigue helps explain why ordinarily sensible people get angry at colleagues and families, splurge on clothes, buy junk food at the supermarket and can’t resist the dealer’s offer to rustproof their new car. No matter how rational…

Details

Outliers

Trading Psychology

It is now nearly two years since events conspired in such a way as to send bushfires of unparalleled size and ferocity across Victoria. The time between then and now has been spent dissecting why the fires were so bad, our response so inadequate and how to avoid such an occurrence in the future. To…

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Stock Analysts

Trading Psychology1 Comment

Apparently when they get it wrong stock analysts stamp their feet and threaten to hold their breath until they turn blue STANFORD GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS — Like oracles in the stock market, securities analysts come up with earnings estimates that are supposed to signal the worth of a company’s stock. But what happens when…

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Stock Analysts

Trading Psychology

Apparently when they get it wrong stock analysts stamp their feet and threaten to hold their breath until they turn blue STANFORD GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS — Like oracles in the stock market, securities analysts come up with earnings estimates that are supposed to signal the worth of a company’s stock. But what happens when…

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The Illusion Of Understanding

Trading Psychology

The ever interesting and insightful Tim Hartford makes mention of the illusion of understanding complex systems in his latest blog. Switch on any business TV channel and you’ll be bombarded with scrolling quotes and jagged graphs. It’s all very well if you like to watch that kind of thing, but the flow of financial data…

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