Predicting the Improbable

Excellent paper by VoxEU.org on behaviour around what are considered improbable events. Predicting the improbable Claus Bjørn Jørgensen Sigrid Suetens Jean-Robert Tyran 22 April 2011 Japan’s trio of tsunami, earthquake, and nuclear disaster has left the world stunned. As this column points out, even the experts were shocked. But while these events were highly unlikely,…

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Explainations

I always find it intriguing that fund managers have to go to such lengths to justify their stance on issues – the interesting point is most of it seems like after the fact rationalisation. This is an example of such long winded thinking, unfortunately it also contains that the use of rational economic thinking to…

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Sheep

Someone dropped this wonderfully insightful image into my inbox this morning. Apparently  it dates back to 1908 – my interpretation of this is that sheep, be they those who just follow or those without a committed opinion get run over by those that do when markets begin to move.

A Bit of History

Ok blogophytes – time to learn something. If I were to ask a room full of traders what is the main rule you pay lip service to, I say lip service because most dont do it. It would be – Cut your losses and let your profits run The interesting thing about this phrase is…

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How to fail

Interesting piece by Seth Godin on failure. As a trader failure is part of our day to day existence and a fear of failure is one of the reasons many cannot trade. Trading is unique in that you effectively fail your way to success – something that would be impossible in most other professions. The…

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