Predictions….again

Following on from the posting on why fund managers fail to generate positive alpha . I thought I would look at the notion of cognitive blindness and emotional overconfidence within the domain of prediction. This was prompted by set of predictions I came across for this year by a group known as Bespoke who have produced a…

Details

Predictions….again

Following on from the posting on why fund managers fail to generate positive alpha . I thought I would look at the notion of cognitive blindness and emotional overconfidence within the domain of prediction. This was prompted by set of predictions I came across for this year by a group known as Bespoke who have…

Details

Put a cork in it Princess

I have written before about the possibility that a lack of sleep might be interfering with your ability to make rational decisions whilst trading. However, it now appears that action at the other end may also be playing a role in your inability to be a calm considered and profitable trend follower. According to a…

Details

Monkey brain traders

THE capuchin monkeys working with economist Keith Chen and psychologist Laurie Santos know a good bargain when they see one. They use metal chips as money, buying bits of apple or cucumber from humans, and they seem to know what they’re doing. When the researchers make apple cheaper than cucumber – offering more food for…

Details

Monkey brain traders

THE capuchin monkeys working with economist Keith Chen and psychologist Laurie Santos know a good bargain when they see one. They use metal chips as money, buying bits of apple or cucumber from humans, and they seem to know what they’re doing. When the researchers make apple cheaper than cucumber – offering more food for…

Details

Why the news is bad for you

One of the most troubling thing I find about new arrivals to our mentor program is their reliance upon external sources of news and the profound cluttering effect this has upon their thinking. This paper gives 15 reasons why the news is bad for you . Avoid_News_Part1_TEXT In summary they are – News misleads systematically…

Details