At the start of the last decade everyone was bullish on emerging market equities. It is hard to recall now, but it was the consensus trade. You couldn’t attend a meeting or conference without being told how many people there were in China or how underwhelming the growth prospects were for developed economies compared to…
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I am often perplexed when people begin to talk about the state of their lives. My confusion arises because I see their actions and then think well your life couldn’t really go any other way. I have mentioned my postie before who goes home and undoubtedly wonders why he is not the chairman of the…
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There is significant evidence that meditation can help us deal with stressful situations, including the recent pandemic and the challenges of doctoral education, as well as mental health concerns such as depression and anxiety. The Mindful.org site, in their review of the science behind meditation, notes such benefits as improved attention, increased emotional resilience, greater…
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When an event such as the coronavirus pandemic hits markets, investor attention is inevitably drawn to the damage that can be wrought by high impact, unpredictable episodes. This is understandable as such occurrences can have disastrous financial consequences. I touched upon managing the risk of ruin in my post on ergodicity[i], and Morgan Housel recently…
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The idea that something can be likely and not happen, or unlikely and still happen, is one of the world’s most important tricks. But let me tell you about a common problem. I’m as guilty of it as anyone else. It’s that most people understand probability, but few actually believe in it. Most people get that certainties…
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In Alex Garland’s recent sci-fi TV series Devs, Silicon Valley engineers have built a quantum computer that they think proves determinism. It allows them to know the position of all the particles in the universe at any given point, and from there, project backwards and forwards in time, seeing into the past and making pinpoint-accurate forecasts…
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Adam Robinson: Right. It’s so funny you should ask that, because people think stupidity is the opposite of intelligence. In fact, stupidity is the cost of intelligence operating in a complex environment. It’s almost inevitable. And so I was asked by an organizer of an investment conference in the Bahamas of some elite global investors…
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Confirmation bias is our tendency to cherry-pick information that confirms our existing beliefs or ideas. Confirmation bias explains why two people with opposing views on a topic can see the same evidence and come away feeling validated by it. This cognitive bias is most pronounced in the case of ingrained, ideological, or emotionally charged views.…
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Whilst having lunch this headline from the Melbourne Age lobbed onto my screen. I was going to write a piece on narrative fallacies, false beliefs, postdictive errors, and general incompetence. You know all the usual stuff I go on about when I play whack-a-mole with analysts heads but I decided to opt for the old…
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