The Bias That Can Cause Catastrophe
The outcome bias erodes your sense of risk and makes you blind to error, explaining everything from fatal plane crashes to the Columbia crash and the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. More here – BBC
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What Really Happens When You Become an Overnight Millionaire?
Peter Rahal, the 33-year-old energy bar impresario who sold RxBar to Kellogg for $600 million and became something of a consumer products legend in the process, stands in the gigantic, spotless kitchen of his new Miami Beach mansion. Behind him, floor-to-ceiling windows revealed his pool, his outdoor bar, and Sunset Harbour. Throughout the house are…
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Why Is It So Hard?
I got flicked an article from a few weeks ago from the AFR that was titled Brace for 5pc super fund returns and the cynic in me instantly assumed that the majority of funds were going to lift their returns to 5%. For some, this would mean doubling their long term rate of return which…
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The Life-Changing Magic of Having ‘Enough’
My dream was to write one book. A real, published book. For years, that was my vision of success. It took a long apprenticeship, but it happened. I sold my first book at age 25. And then, almost immediately, it became clear in my mind that — you know what? — real success is writing a bestselling book. Before…
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My Chat With Bull Bear Traders
Recently I had an early morning chat with William Hathaway from Bull Bear Traders One of the interesting things about trading is the number of universal principles that underly successful trading. At first glance it may appear that trading US stock intraday is very different from trading commodities and indices from Melbourne. But as William…
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Innovating in Bets
Every organization, whether small or big, early or late stage — and every individual, whether for themselves or others — makes countless decisions every day, under conditions of uncertainty. The question is, are we allowing that uncertainty to bubble to the surface, and if so, how much and when? Where does consensus, transparency, forecasting, backcasting,…
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First Systematic Study Of The Advice People Would Give To Their Younger Selves
Reporting their findings in The Journal of Social Psychology Robin Kowalski and Annie McCord at Clemson University have done just that in two surveys of hundreds of participants on Amazon’s Mechanical Turk website. Their findings show that people’s advice to their younger selves is overwhelmingly focused on prior relationships, educational opportunities and personal worth, echoing similar results…
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If You’re Not Outside Your Comfort Zone, You’re Not Learning
Not knowing what’s going to happen next is generally stressful. Uncertainty signals that you’re unsure of your environment, your skills, or both. But uncertainty also signals the brain to kickstart learning, new Yale research published in the journal Neuron has found. That means crazy, unstable situations might be uncomfortable, but they’re also essential if you want to make the most…
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