Brilliant opening quote…. “Forecasting: the attempt to predict the unknowable by measuring the irrelevant; this task employs most people on Wall Street.” The words of Jason Zweig, author of the Devil’s Financial Dictionary, are particularly apt at this time of year. We hear a lot from financial forecasters every January, as strategists prognosticate on what’s in store…
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It always struck me that golf and trading were closely related in that in a golf tournament the person who wins is the one who makes the fewest catastrophic errors. And when they make those errors it is the person who manages their mental state afterwards who wins…
Around about now Wall Street and others begin to trot out what their predictions for the coming year are. The latest round of such crystal ball gazing can be found here in an article by Bloomberg called Here’s (Almost) Everything Wall Street Expects in 2019 You can peruse this sort of nonsense at your leisure.However, before…
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It is without question that investors now have easy access to more information than ever to guide decision making; optically, this surfeit of data appears to be a positive – who doesn’t want more ‘evidence’ to inform their judgements? Yet there are a number of potential drawbacks, most notably the challenge of disentangling signals from…
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In yesterdays video I talked briefly about eliminating the noise that seems to be so predominant today. Part of this noise tries to generate a cohesive narrative that mixes politics, the economy and the market and to impose a relationship where there is probably none. Governments come and go economies travel in fits and spurts…
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Source – The Poke
I was recently listening to the 100th episode of the Michael Kitces podcast with Joe Duran to learn about how Duran used data analytics to help build and scale a $24 billion wealth management firm. However, it wasn’t the machine learning or the data-driven decision making that stuck with me the most. It was something Duran said at the end of…
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When, at the age of 50, John Fenn joined the faculty at Yale, he was old by academic standards. But then again, he was an inveterate late starter. He published his first research paper at 32, a decade after leaving graduate school. He was 35 when he got his first academic appointment, at Princeton, where he started working…
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…..And noting your gratitude seems to pay off: There’s a growing body of research on the benefits of gratitude. Studies have found that giving thanks and counting blessings can help people sleep better, lower stress and improve interpersonal relationships. Earlier this year, a study found that keeping a gratitude journal decreased materialism and bolstered generosity among adolescents. In another study from August, high school…
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