I was recently listening to the 100th episode of the Michael Kitces podcast with Joe Duran to learn about how Duran used data analytics to help build and scale a $24 billion wealth management firm. However, it wasn’t the machine learning or the data-driven decision making that stuck with me the most. It was something Duran said at the end of…
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When, at the age of 50, John Fenn joined the faculty at Yale, he was old by academic standards. But then again, he was an inveterate late starter. He published his first research paper at 32, a decade after leaving graduate school. He was 35 when he got his first academic appointment, at Princeton, where he started working…
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…..And noting your gratitude seems to pay off: There’s a growing body of research on the benefits of gratitude. Studies have found that giving thanks and counting blessings can help people sleep better, lower stress and improve interpersonal relationships. Earlier this year, a study found that keeping a gratitude journal decreased materialism and bolstered generosity among adolescents. In another study from August, high school…
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The DSM-5 says that roughly 15% of people meet the criteria for a personality disorder. And most of them are never diagnosed. Now you’re not a psychiatrist and neither am I, so we shouldn’t run around diagnosing people… But we can learn enough to recognize if someone is a “high-conflict person”, reasonably give a diagnosis of “no good for…
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In May of 2013, the Stanford University neurosurgical resident Paul Kalanithi was diagnosed with Stage IV metastatic lung cancer. He was thirty-six years old. In his two remaining years—he died in March of 2015—he continued his medical training, became the father to a baby girl, and wrote beautifully about his experience facing mortality as a doctor and a patient.…
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………..Investors have to face fear every day, although more so on some days than others (nobody complains about volatility to the upside), and don’t often face it very effectively. To quote Jason Zweig paraphrasing Mike Tyson, “investors always have a plan until the market punches them in the face.” Real fear comes with names, faces, and a story.…
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I want to ask you a question. How many hours per day do you think? “I never thought about that.” So let me get this straight. You’re thinking all the time, and yet, you never think about how much time you spend thinking. That sounds like an addiction to me. I know, because I’m addicted to thinking too.…
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Overconfidence can have a profound impact on our decision making, but can be difficult to acknowledge and even harder to rectify. It also seems likely that overconfidence is a particularly pernicious bias in the investment industry, for the following reasons: – Selection bias: There is probably a selection bias into front office investment management roles…
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I have always been a fan of Decision Theory – the notion of how we make decisions with varying amounts of information has always been fascinating to me. This should seem obvious since trading is a profession that straddles both normative and descriptive decision making. Normative decision is about making decisions with incomplete information whereas…
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