Honnold is history’s greatest ever climber in the free solo style, meaning he ascends without a rope or protective equipment of any kind. Above about 50 feet, any fall would likely be lethal, which means that, on epic days of soloing, he might spend 12 or more hours in the Death Zone. On the hardest…
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Every now and again you hear of someone who managed to win the lottery with their magic scheme, you might even hear that some mathematician has found out what numbers are most likely to be drawn. When I hear of such things I am always amazed that said mathematician seems to confuse lucky with random…
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Long story made short – fund managers from poor backgrounds make better fund managers than those from wealthy backgrounds. Which does make sense when you think about it not only in terms of drive and the will to succeed without a safety net but also a greater understanding of the need to husband resource. Abstract…
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This is not a new observation but rather one that has simply been reinforced via observation over the last little while. We will all if given the opportunity find the mechanism of our own self destruction.
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Trading is a decision making profession – every day traders are forced to make decisions. We either have to choose between instruments we are going to trade or simply choose not to trade at all. Its quite a simple binary profession that is hopefully governed by some form of structure that guides your decision making…
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Abstract Prediction markets have been an important source of information for decision makers due to their high ex post accuracies. Nevertheless, recent failures of prediction markets remind us of the importance of ex ante assessments of their prediction accuracy. This paper proposes a systematic procedure for decision makers to acquire prediction models which may be used…
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Despite what the late night infomercials might tell you trading is a difficult profession. The rules that describe successful trading are very simple and can be distilled into three basic ideas. If its trending up – buy it If its trending down – sell it Dont bet the farm. There is nothing in these rules…
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I disagree with myself.” This is what a third-grade boy said in front of his math class during a discussion about even and odd numbers. He believed six was both even and odd. When one classmate presented counterevidence, he considered her point. “I didn’t think of it that way,” he said. “Thank you for bringing that up.”…
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