Observation Of The Day
This is not a new observation but rather one that has simply been reinforced via observation over the last little while. We will all if given the opportunity find the mechanism of our own self destruction.
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Fredkins Paradox
Trading is a decision making profession – every day traders are forced to make decisions. We either have to choose between instruments we are going to trade or simply choose not to trade at all. Its quite a simple binary profession that is hopefully governed by some form of structure that guides your decision making…
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Predicting the failures of prediction markets
Abstract Prediction markets have been an important source of information for decision makers due to their high ex post accuracies. Nevertheless, recent failures of prediction markets remind us of the importance of ex ante assessments of their prediction accuracy. This paper proposes a systematic procedure for decision makers to acquire prediction models which may be used…
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Why Is Trading So Hard?
Despite what the late night infomercials might tell you trading is a difficult profession. The rules that describe successful trading are very simple and can be distilled into three basic ideas. If its trending up – buy it If its trending down – sell it Dont bet the farm. There is nothing in these rules…
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The Benefits of Admitting When You Don’t Know
I disagree with myself.” This is what a third-grade boy said in front of his math class during a discussion about even and odd numbers. He believed six was both even and odd. When one classmate presented counterevidence, he considered her point. “I didn’t think of it that way,” he said. “Thank you for bringing that up.”…
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How Income Affects the Brain
We often attribute financial problems to bad life decisions: Why didn’t that person stay in college? Why didn’t they pick a more lucrative career? Why did they have so many kids? But several recent studies suggest that having less money can actually affect thinking and memory for the worse. In the most recent of these…
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How heavy use of social media is linked to mental illness
According to a survey in 2017 by the Royal Society for Public Health, Britons aged 14-24 believe that Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat and Twitter have detrimental effects on their wellbeing. On average, they reported that these social networks gave them extra scope for self-expression and community-building. But they also said that the platforms exacerbated anxiety and depression, deprived…
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Why Can’t Fund Managers Admit Mistakes?
A good piece with applications at all levels of trading. “It infuriates me to be wrong, when I know I am right.” (Moliere) In a previous job, I worked for an investment consultant who employed a psychologist to assist in their fund manager research process. I vividly recall her making a particularly astute point about…
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