NEW HAVEN — On Jan. 12, a few days after registration opened at Yale for Psyc 157, Psychology and the Good Life, roughly 300 people had signed up. Within three days, the figure had more than doubled. After three more days, about 1,200 students, or nearly one-fourth of Yale undergraduates, were enrolled. The course, taught…
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I really shouldn’t have a go at academics since that was a career path I once aspired to. Despite my failed career aspirations they do always seem to be late to the party and when they get there they have brought Captain Obvious as a date. As an example consider the abstract from this piece…
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Complexity bias is a logical fallacy that leads us to give undue credence to complex concepts. Faced with two competing hypotheses, we are likely to choose the most complex one. That’s usually the option with the most assumptions and regressions. As a result, when we need to solve a problem, we may ignore simple solutions…
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One of my mentors is an art dealer. He specializes in art from the middle ages. Last time we met, he showed me a part of his personal collection. Impressed by the size of the collection, I asked how long it took to accumulate everything. He said “45 years,” and then he laughed when I…
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This is a little quiz prompted by a recent conversation with Matt F who brought these little metrics to my attention. Below is a chart of the Dow and on it I have plotted a simple 3 ATR stop which can serve as a trend indicator. The question is – given the information above would…
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I came across this excellent chart the other day. It shows those times in history when the S&P 500 doubled over a ten year period and the trajectory that this doubling took. Source – @morganhousel Much commentary that followed on twitter related to the steady low volatility climb that characterised the latest run and how boring…
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Just as December is the month when financial experts…..sorry dickheads make total fools of themselves by making worthless predictions for the upcoming year so January is the month where everybody bangs on about how January predicts the year. Unfortunately, it doesn’t; it is yet another zombie idea that has taken root in the financial community…
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“Be more confident,” a friend once told me as we made the rounds at a swanky networking event where I felt terribly out of place. Faking confidence is easy: I pulled my shoulders back and spoke louder and with more assertiveness. Like many soft-spoken, mild-mannered people, I’ve spent a great deal of time trying to…
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