Paul Offit likes to tell a story about how his wife, pediatrician Bonnie Offit, was about to give a child a vaccination when the kid was struck by a seizure. Had she given the injection a minute sooner, Paul Offit says, it would surely have appeared as though the vaccine had caused the seizure and…
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One of the issues that bedevil us as both humans and traders is our ability to think clearly and rationally about subjects. We are prone to making snap judgments based upon the flimsiest of evidence. I get any and all manner of rubbish sent to me – some of it by people who should know…
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This is from a boxing and conditioning coach Ross Enamait who I find to be a bit of the go to bloke for old school conditioning. It might not seem relevant but substitute the voice of a coach for the voice that occurs inside your own head and all of a sudden it becomes relevant…
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As long ago as the fourth century B.C., scientists have argued in favor of simplicity. Perhaps the most familiar expression of the importance of simplicity for science is the 14th century formulation known as Occam’s razor, a line of reasoning that holds that the simplest answer is often correct. The preference for simplicity in science…
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Michael Mauboussin: When does intuition work or fail? Daniel Kahneman: Intuition works less often than we think. There is no such thing as professional “expertise.” The Intuitions in chess masters develop with “big data” comes from experience. For people, the immediacy of feedback is especially important to learn the basis of expertise. When feedback comes…
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What if the rich get richer because they know how to invest their money more effectively? New research shows that this may be a factor behind the rise in inequality. Different investors have different levels of sophistication. Why? It might come from varying levels of education. For example, I know what diversification is, and why…
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While you may not remember life as a toddler, you most likely believe that your selfhood then—your essential being—was intrinsically the same as it is today. Buddhists, though, suggest that this is just an illusion—a philosophy that’s increasingly supported by scientific research. “Buddhists argue that nothing is constant, everything changes through time, you have a…
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Whilst I am not an economist nor am I even a macro trader – I am still vaguely sensible enough to spot a relationship… It is intriguing how little attention this gets on the sell side of economics (namely politics) and the implied problems this creates for the local economy.
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