When newbies first come to trading they have often have in the back of their mind that trading will save them from whatever fate life may have in store for them or that it will somehow compensate for past failures. Unfortunately, the traits that make people successful are universal. People who are successful in one…
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When psychologists are asked which findings in their field will pass a replication attempt, their predictions prove little better than flipping a coin. But if they play a betting market on the same question, the aggregate results give a fairly good prediction of which studies will hold up if repeated, a prediction experiment suggests1. The…
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Does it make sense to talk about “rational people”? That is, is there a sub-population of individuals who consistently exhibit less cognitive bias and better judgment under uncertainty than average people? Do these people have the dispositions we’d intuitively associate with more thoughtful habits of mind? (Are they more flexible and deliberative, less dogmatic and…
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We may be seeing the Dunning-Kruger effect in groups. The Dunning-Kruger effect reflects a persistent bias in how we assess our own specific competence in an area. The effect is often summarized (usually for the purpose of snark on an internet exchange) as, “dumb people are too dumb to realize how dumb they…
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One of the more interesting things about following hedge funds is the behaviour of those who run them. At various times they will get into wonderfully childish slanging matches with one another that generally take on the following dialogue. Hedge Fund Loser One – The stock you own is bullshit… Hedge fund Loser Two –…
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If one wants to be active, one mustn’t be afraid to do something wrong sometimes, not afraid to lapse into some mistakes. To be good — many people think that they’ll achieve it by doing no harm — and that’s a lie… That leads to stagnation, to mediocrity. Just slap something on it when you…
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Paul Offit likes to tell a story about how his wife, pediatrician Bonnie Offit, was about to give a child a vaccination when the kid was struck by a seizure. Had she given the injection a minute sooner, Paul Offit says, it would surely have appeared as though the vaccine had caused the seizure and…
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One of the issues that bedevil us as both humans and traders is our ability to think clearly and rationally about subjects. We are prone to making snap judgments based upon the flimsiest of evidence. I get any and all manner of rubbish sent to me – some of it by people who should know…
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