Lessons From Dunning-Kruger

As you can see in the chart above, the most competent individuals tend to underestimate their relative ability a little, but for most people (the bottom 75%) they increasingly overestimate their ability, and everyone thinks they are above average. I sometimes hear the effect incorrectly described as, “the more incompetent you are, the more knowledgeable…

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Conquering Complexity With Simple Rules

What do burglars, Stanford’s football team, and Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen have in common? They all use simple rules to help them navigate complex challenges, according to a new book by Stanford professor Kathleen Eisenhardt. Many burglars follow just one rule that significantly lowers their risk of getting caught — they pass on houses where…

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My Trip

We can easily forgive a child who is afraid of the dark; the real tragedy of life is when men are afraid of the light.” ― Plato I have just retuned from the AIA Conference on the Gold Coast. Speaking as such events is always interesting since the audience represents a departure from the normal crowd I…

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