I have written often about how appalling the social sciences are at prediction and I include the financial markets within this soft science definition. The chart below shows that intriguingly this is not the case with other sciences – longer term weather forecasts are becoming more and more accurate. The interesting thing is that economists have…
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We tend to speak of short-termism as though it’s a problem that only afflicts investors or corporate leaders, but that’s not the case. Short-term thinking pervades our most important institutions, from government to households. We’ve created a gambling culture in which we tune out everything except the most immediate outcomes. If we’re going to meet our…
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Interesting look at bubbles and the impact of timing upon them. Abstract: Investment manias and financial bubbles have likely existed for as long as humans have been involved in financial markets. In this research piece we take a look at some of the more famous market bubbles in history and the extreme volatility…
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More from the folks at Behaviour Gap
Part Two of Michael Yardneys article on psychological bias’s We like to think we’re rational human beings. However last month I’ve shared with you the concept that we are in fact prone to a group of cognitive biases that cause us to think and act irrationally, and this affects many of our investment decisions.…
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“It took off in just about a heartbeat,” says Evans, who oversees instruction with help from guest lecturers and a small army of student volunteers, who lead discussion groups. Today, 17% of seniors enroll in “Designing Your Life,” and many more vie for the limited seats in each section. “We’ve had students literally teach the…
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The worst sort of business is one that grows rapidly, requires significant capital to engender the growth, and then earns little or no money. Think airlines. Here a durable competitive advantage has proven elusive ever since the days of the Wright Brothers. Indeed, if a farsighted capitalist had been present at Kitty Hawk, he would…
DetailsOn the flip side if we were not overconfident we would still be living in caves….
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What is standing between you and property investing success? It could be YOU! Maybe you’re too biased to be a successful property investor? What do I mean by that? Well…did you know that as property investors we can sometimes be our own worst enemy? It’s not because of the decisions we make, the opportunities we…
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