Herd Behavior in Financial Markets

Over the last twenty-five years, there has been a lot of interest in herd behavior in financial markets—that is, a trader’s decision to disregard her private information to follow the behavior of the crowd. A large theoretical literature has identified abstract mechanisms through which herding can arise, even in a world where people are fully rational. Until…

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The Power Of Not Knowing

To make money in the markets, you have to think independently and be humble. You have to be an independent thinker because you can’t make money agreeing with the consensus view, which is already embedded in the price. Yet whenever you’re betting against the consensus, there’s a significant probability you’re going to be wrong so…

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Can You Do It?

I was chatting to Jim Armstrong a mate of mine who teaches combatives/self defence and he is probably the best teacher of this sort of thing that I have come across in all my decades of knocking about the martial arts. The discussion turned to the notion being preemptive (language) – that is hitting someone first. Unfortunately,…

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