Predicting the Improbable

Excellent paper by VoxEU.org on behaviour around what are considered improbable events. Predicting the improbable Claus Bjørn Jørgensen Sigrid Suetens Jean-Robert Tyran 22 April 2011 Japan’s trio of tsunami, earthquake, and nuclear disaster has left the world stunned. As this column points out, even the experts were shocked. But while these events were highly unlikely,…

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Gold

The markets section of the WSJ is currently running a piece titled the  World is Bitten by the Gold Bug. “Gold continued its upward march in a time of global financial tumult, closing above $1,500 an ounce Thursday for the first time as investors seek safe haven in the metal. In a remarkable performance for…

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Imaginery Friends

If you thought the responses on our politicians to serious problems was somewhat of a joke consider the case of Texas Governor Rick Perry. Texas is in the grip of a severe drought much like parts of Australia had been. His response is to call for a national three days of praying for rain. TO…

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Imaginery Friends

If you thought the responses on our politicians to serious problems was somewhat of a joke consider the case of Texas Governor Rick Perry. Texas is in the grip of a severe drought much like parts of Australia had been. His response is to call for a national three days of praying for rain. TO…

Details

Gold

The markets section of the WSJ is currently running a piece titled the  World is Bitten by the Gold Bug. “Gold continued its upward march in a time of global financial tumult, closing above $1,500 an ounce Thursday for the first time as investors seek safe haven in the metal. In a remarkable performance for…

Details