Interesting look at bubbles and the impact of timing upon them. Abstract: Investment manias and financial bubbles have likely existed for as long as humans have been involved in financial markets. In this research piece we take a look at some of the more famous market bubbles in history and the extreme volatility…
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In November, 2013, Whitney Tilson, who runs a small hedge fund called Kase Capital Management, gave a presentation to a group of money managers. Tilson’s talk was about a flooring company called Lumber Liquidators. In the previous two years, its profits had more than doubled and its stock had risen sevenfold. But Tilson made a…
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Financial research is highly prone to statistical distortion. Academics have the choice of many thousands of stocks, bonds and currencies being traded across dozens of countries, complete with decades’ worth of daily price data. They can backtest thousands of correlations to find a few that appear to offer profitable strategies. The paper points out that…
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All market participants have little myths that they cling to and it doesn’t matter whether your investing is based upon the narrative fallacies generated by fundamental investing/news or whether you take a more technical approach. All humans are subject to inaccuracies in thinking – making mental mistakes is universal. One that has always intrigued me…
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The stories we tell ourselves are integral to our wellbeing, too. Depressed people often cling to long-established internal narratives with refrains like ‘I’m not good enough to achieve much,’ or ‘My mother dashes all my most important dreams.’ Counsellors who practice psychodynamic therapy help clients discard these stagnant inner monologues and substitute fresh ones. In…
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I grabbed the piece below from a social drivel site because it neatly explores something I spoke about in Sydney last week. This offers a paradox in that it attempts to explain something that needs no explanation and the explanation it offers is wrong. I say that the movement in the market requires no explanation…
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Each decision to trade is implicitly based upon an assumption as to who is in charge – the bulls or the bears. However, this decision whilst it seems reasonably simple is actually a very hard one to make. In part I think the difficulty arises because of the myopic nature of traders and the inability to…
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This piece is about how to raise children to be more resilient in the face of both natural talent and adversity. However, the following caught my eye as being universal. People can learn to be helpless, too, but not everyone reacts to setbacks this way. I wondered: Why do some students give up when they…
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