Investors often talk about making a decision based on a feeling in their gut. Explaining how some form of unconscious intuition led them to the correct choice. Although this is an appealing notion – particularly as people only seem to mention it following success – it can also be a dangerous one. Should investors really…
One spring evening, two men and a woman walked into the Ritz Club casino, an upmarket establishment in London’s West End. Security officers in a back room logged their entry and watched a grainy CCTV feed as the trio strolled past high gilded arches and oil paintings of gentlemen posing in hats. Casino workers greeted…
When Fiat Lux Partners burst onto the short selling scene in January with a scathing critique of an activist short seller report, rumors surged regarding the identity of the new outfit. Was it being financed by the companies targeted by short sellers? Was veteran short seller Marc Cohodes, a virulent critic of several activist short…
I have witnessed a disturbing trend in the industry of late: the over-optimisation or curve fitting of trading systems. This practice involves tweaking the parameters of a system to fit the historical data, often resulting in unrealistic and inflated performance metrics. Optimisation is a dangerous and misguided approach that can lead to disastrous outcomes for…
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