One of the most common statements since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic is that the economic and market outlook has become more uncertain. Given that the future is inherently difficult to predict with any level of confidence and we are generally terrible forecasters can it really be true that the world is now more uncertain?
The environment unquestionably feels more unstable. There are a range of imponderables around the development of the virus itself that none of us can hope to anticipate. From the potential of a ‘second wave’ to the production of a viable vaccine. We have also experienced an unprecedented economic ‘stop’, and credible cases can be made for an inflationary or deflationary future.
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And ever was it so ! We know what we think we know, we think we know what we don’t know, we don’t know what we don’t know we don’t know. Oh dear me !!