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Trading Game
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More than ever the current situation has totally exposed the specious conceptual position that fundamentals have much to do with trading. Economies and markets are now, particularly, so heavily manipulated that the idea that company fundamentals somehow underpin market prices is totally risible. World geopolitical relationships and economic relationships are fractured. Terrorism, war, disease, ferocious international competition for raw materials (including intellectual property) overpopulation, catastrophic climate changes and the behaviour of central banks have all become fundamentals in a way. The balance of these at any point in time is completely unquantifiable, unpredicatable and uncontrollable. So we come back to the traders fundamental. Trade what you see. Tread lightly. Be adroit. Watch your back. The game has changed but the underlying principles are being shown to be even more obvious and relevant than ever.
Trend trading is almost embarrassingly simple. Simple as turning off all news, not listening to anyone’s opinions, and using a single moving average for the buy trigger. My long signal for the US market was indicated back in mid April. Still holding. Counter-intuitively, trend trading requires little effort for great reward.