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Quants: The Alchemists of Wall Street
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Scary but well worth watching
“The Market” (whatever that is) is always undervalued or over valued. Always. When was the last time you ever saw a dead straight moving average?? And what is the value anyway? Future cash flow? Book value? Enterprise value? Beta? They’re all different for everyone.
“28:55” – “History doesn’t repeat itself because you’re dealing with people and people don’t work that way”. Then at “32:00” – Since 1994 markets have been rising and falling as the government continually steps in to stimulate the economy by decreasing interest rates. (people don’t work that way lol).
Reminds me of a bar chart of future 12 month US mortgage turnovers in an email I received in July 2007. I knew it was bad but didn’t know how bad so thought it an opportunity to observe the market. At that same time, reading “All About Derivatives, Michael Durban. Page 63 (credit contracts); “What is the ultimate value of such marketization of credit risk? It’s had to say for certain, but a few things come to mind”.
The funny part is the footnote that I’d circled at the bottom of the page (because I wanted an answer. haha). ” 1. This begs the question of course, of how a protection buyer can be assured the protection seller won’t default. It’s a fine question, a serious one, but one we simply shant get to. Sorry!”
I’m not the oyster shucker, I’m the oyster shucker’s son and i’m only shucking oysters til my quant makes me my $um.
#1Peanut.