One of the podcasts on my playlist is the Real Science of Sport and in the current episode, they speak to Peter Bills the author of The Jersey which is an insight into why the New Zealand All Blacks are without a doubt the worlds most dominant sporting team. During the conversation Bills mentioned that many an international coach and commentator had visited an All Blacks training camp trying to divine what the secret was only to be surprised that their training drills consisted of practicing the basics. The worlds most dominant rugby side spends its time working on running, catching, passing and tackling. There is no secret sauce there are only the basics and the players embrace this approach, there is no moaning that they are not doing anything different than what you would do in club grade training. So when the Wallabies are belted again by the Kiwi’s they are defeated by a side that does all the simple things just a little bit better.
Whilst listening to this I was thinking about it in terms of trading and I have to admit to some embarrassment when people ask me how I trade. I noticed this yesterday whilst recording a presentation for the Online Trading Summit 2019 details of which I will put on the blog when they are available. My system can be described as simply buy breakouts in existing trends and don’t bet the farm. In no way is it rocket science and I certainly don’t have lines or bits and pieces all over the chart, there is no special factor analysis that attempts to tease out the drivers of price. Its all rather dull and basic. But in being dull it is robust – there is not much for me to remember which means there are not many chances for me to screw it up. Over the decades I have noticed if it is going to go wring it is because I have tried to outsmart myself.
Whenever I look at other trading systems I view them through the lens of the need for simplicity. Stemming from this is the question is your system complex because it needs to be or are you just trying to appear clever to yourself or others.
