The last two minutes is particularly useful about updating internal beliefs.
The Bayesian Trap
Trading Game
Trade Confidently and Safely
The last two minutes is particularly useful about updating internal beliefs.
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And of course we use Bayes theorem in analysing our weight of evidence.
Could analyse the success of the mentor program after plugging in the posterior probabilities of each individual program that’s been run over the years, based on a percentage of successful outcomes. I realise this may be difficult and only be applicable based on some rudimentary form of analysis. (giving a year by year evaluation of progress as well as overall success).
Just a thought.
Isn’t it wonderful how just about everything we think can be held in question? We spend every day utilising a model of the world that we truly believe in and act out. We believe things that just may not be true and we have no idea of the possibilities of things not yet revealed. And the deeper we live within our belief structure the more limited we are. And the more threatening we perceive the world to be the more we hang on to our belief systems as a means of making sense of the awfulness and blocking out the noise. We powerfully seem to need to feel that we are not insignificant and/or irrelevant but the world reveals to us a different paradigm. Optimists may ignore or override this perception of external threat and pessimists may do the opposite, but both lead to a failure to see possibilities, both positive and negative (to add a value judgement). Chris thank you very much for reopening my mind to Bayes. I was first introduced to him many years ago in an out of context situation such that, sadly, I didn’t have a clue what was being revealed to me.